中期貸出制度（ＭＬＦ）金利下げ
中国人民銀行は、1月17日、中期貸出制度（ＭＬＦ）金利を従来の2.95％から2.85％に引き下げた。2020年４月以来の引下げ実施である。
この後、中国国家統計局が発表した昨年第4四半期(10－12月)の国内総生産成長率は、前期比1.6％増、前年同期比で4.0％増と伸びが鈍化した。第3四半期(7－9月)は前期比0.7％増だったので、そこからは加速したが、前年同期比では4.9％増加からは見劣りする数字だった。2021年通年でのGDP成長率は8.1％増で、政府目標だった「６％超」は上回った。
不動産市況とゼロコロナ政策が経済を圧迫
中国経済は、昨年夏から、電力不足による工場の稼働低下、不動産開発業者の流動性逼迫による不動産市況の停滞、新型コロナウイルス感染の再拡大による行動制限実施と次々と難題に直面している。
オミクロン変異株の感染が北京や天津など主要都市で確認され、政府が厳格なコロナ規制強化を実施したことが影響した。これにより、消費者心理にはマイナスに働き、個人消費の伸び悩んだ。小売売上高(12月)は前年同月比1.7％増にとどまった。中国政府のゼロコロナ政策は消費を抑制する要因になっており、持ち直しには至っていない。
また、不動産関連投資の不調で、固定資産投資は急速にしぼんでおり、当面、中国経済の足かせになるだろう。中国政府は昨年、不動産開発業者に巨額債務の圧縮を迫った結果、主要各社の資金繰り難が深刻化し、開発事業には多数の遅延が発生、不動産の購入を手控える動きが広がって、不動産市況は急速に冷え込んだ。
12月単月では不動産投資額は前年同月比13.9％減少と11月の同4.9％減から悪化した。国内100都市を調査対象とする新築住宅価格は前月比0.02％下落した。11月の0.04％下落に比べると縮小した理由は、不動産市況の急激な悪化を阻止するために当局が講じた不動産業者の資金調達に対する制限を一部緩和した措置の効果だろう。中国政府は経済のハードランディングを回避するため、昨年末から段階的に不動産開発業者への融資基準を緩和している。
不透明感強まる
今年の先行きについても、前半は、厳しい環境が続くと予想している。世界の需要は鈍化が見込まれているほか、オミクロン変異株も国内外で広がり、中国恒大集団に端を発した住宅市場の危機も終わりが見えない。不透明感が根強い。
１～２月は、春節（旧正月）の大型連休を控えているが、ゼロコロナ政策の下、厳格な制限措置は続き、例年のようには帰省・旅行の支出はないだろう。消費は低水準になるのではないか。２月に開催される北京冬季五輪のために大気汚染対策として北京周辺では第１次産業への生産抑制もあると言われる。工業生産は伸び悩みが予想される。
中国当局はテコ入れに動いているが、その効果は限定的で、外需も不確実性や不均衡が増すと見られる。中国の2022年成長率は、５％台前半まで軟化するとの予想も増えている。
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